A Question of Balancing Robot Technologies

The question of just how robots will affect us in the future consumes quite a bit of my time because I’m so interested in how they can be used for good. For example, robots are currently used to fight fires and to keep humans out of inhospitable environments. We also rely on robots to build some of the goods we enjoy and as a result, there are fewer assembly line accidents today than there were in the past (the quality of the output is also increasing). In the future, you can count on robot technology to help you remain independent, rather than ending up in a nursing home. There are even cars that rely on robots to drive them today and if things turn out as I expect, everyone will eventually use this sort of vehicle because robots will actually follow the traffic laws and reduce accidents as a result. In fact, it’s not too surprising to think that robots will appear in a lot of different situations that you don’t see them in today.

Humans are afraid of change. So, I’m also not surprised to find reports online that range from robots stealing jobs to terminator type robots killing us all off in order to save us (as in I, Robot). The fact is that robots really are under our control and as long as we exercise even a modicum of judgement, things will remain that way. I’m not saying that we couldn’t create a terminator-style robot. Recent advances in chip technology make it quite possible that we could create such a robot, but it’s important to ask why we’d ever do such a thing. In order for a new robot to become successful, there has to be a commercial reason to develop it and no one is interested in creating a terminator to destroy the human race.

What I think is more likely to happen is that robots will become companions to humans—devices that are both willing and able to take the risk out of human existence. The reduction of risk is an essential element in the robot/human relationship. We’ll continue to increase our use of robots as long as we can see a significant benefit to our personal lives. For example, it would be nice if we could eliminate the use of nursing homes altogether—that people could continue to live in their homes using robotic assistance. And, because those robots would be dedicated to the humans they serve, the standard of caregiving would increase dramatically. Of course, we have to get used to the idea of talking to a mechanical contrivance. Wait, we already do that—just consider how people interact with applications like Apple’s Siri.

Of course, people are asking what humans will do in the future if robots take on all of the tasks we have them slated for. For better or worse, the human condition has been changing at an ever more rapid pace over the last several years. If you look at just one statistic, you’ll miss what I’m trying to say here. For example, humans now live to an average age of 80 in many areas of the world—the average age will only increase barring some major change. People have children later in life now and focus more on career during the early years. Schools focus on getting kids to college and the college courses are becoming more challenging. In short, the environment in which we live today will change significantly in the next 40 or 50 years—to the point that most people won’t recognize the future as being any part of the past.

The change that has grabbed my attention most though is how much technology is now incorporated into humans (and the pace is only increasing). Yes, most of the technology currently does things like help people walk—it meets accessibility requirements. However, it’s only a matter of time before the technology will be used to help extend life and potentially make humans better adapted at excelling at tasks that we can’t even imagine now. So the question isn’t one of robots stealing jobs or killing us off terminator style, it’s one of understanding that humans are changing is a significant way and we’ll actually need robots to excel in the future. Let me know your thoughts about robots and our future at [email protected].

 

A History of Microprocessors

Every once in a while, someone will send me a truly interesting link. Having seen a few innovations myself and possessing a strong interest in history, I read the CPU DB: Recording Microprocessor History on the Association for Computing Machinery (ACM) site with great interest. The post is a bit long, but essentially, the work by Andrew Danowitz, Kyle Kelley, James Mao, John P. Stevenson, and Mark Horowitz does something that no other site does, it provides you with a comprehensive view of 790 different microprocessors created since the introduction of Intel’s 4004 in November 1971. The CPU DB is available for anyone to use and should prove useful for scientist, developer, and hobbyist alike.

Unlike a lot of the work done on microprocessors, this one hasn’t been commissioned by a particular company. In fact, you’ll find processors from 17 different vendors. The work also spans a considerable number of disciplines. For example, you can discover how the physical scaling of devices has changed over the years and the effects of software on processor design and development.

A lot of the information available in this report is also available from the vendor or a third party in some form. The problem with vendor specification sheets and third party reports is that they vary in composition, depth, and content-making any sort of comparison extremely difficult and time consuming. This database makes it possible to compare the 790 processors directly and using the same criteria. A researcher can now easily see the differences between two microprocessors, making it considerably easier to draw conclusions about microprocessor design and implementation.

Not surprisingly, it has taken a while to collect this sort of information at the depth provided. According to the site, this database has been a work in progress for 30 years now. That’s a long time to research anything, especially something as esoteric as the voltage and frequency ranges of microprocessors. The authors stated their efforts were hampered in some cases by the age of the devices and the unavailability of samples for testing. I would imagine that trying to find a usable copy of a 4004 for testing would be nearly impossible.

You’ll have to read the report to get the full scoop of everything that CPU DB provides. The information is so detailed that the authors resorted to using tables and diagrams to explain it. Let’s just say that if you can’t find the statistic you need in CPU DB, it probably doesn’t exist. In order to provide a level playing field for all of the statistics, the researchers have used standardized testing. For example, they rely on the Standard Performance Evaluation Corporation (SPEC) benchmarks to compare the processors. Tables 1 and 2 in the report provide an overview of the sorts information you’ll find in CPU DB.

This isn’t a resource I’ll use every day. However, it is a resource I plan to use when trying to make sense of performance particulars. Using the information from CPU DB should remove some of the ambiguity in trying to compare system designs and determine how they affect the software running on them. If you feel like your CPU may be overloaded, companies like Apica Systems can help with sorting that out so your website is not underperforming. Let me know what you think of CPU DB at [email protected].