Automation and the Future of Human Employment

This is an update of a post that originally appeared on May 9, 2016.

It wasn’t long ago that I wrote Robotics and Your Job to consider the role that robots will play in human society in the near future. Of course, robots are already doing mundane chores and those list of chores will increase as robot capabilities increase. The question of what sorts of work humans will do in the future has crossed my mind quite a lot as I’ve written a number of AI, machine learning, and deep learning books such as Artificial Intelligence for Dummies, 2nd Edition. In fact, both Luca and I have discussed the topic at depth. It isn’t just robotics, but the whole issue of automation that is important. Robots actually fill an incredibly small niche in the much larger topic of automation. Although articles like The end of humans working in service industry? seem to say that robots are the main issue, automation comes in all sorts of guises. So, here it is seven years later and robot theme parks are still in the news and they are making an impact as security guards. In addition, Huis Ten Bosch still has Robot Kingdom going (you can select either Japanese or English as needed to read the information). The fact of the matter is that in seven years robots have become a significant part of most people’s lives and the impact will continue to grow. Not that I’m actually expecting an I Robot experience any time soon.

My vision for the future is that people will be able to work in occupations with lower risks, higher rewards, and greater interest. Unfortunately, not everyone wants a job like that. Some people really do want to go to work, clock in, place a tiny cog in a somewhat large wheel all day, clock out, and go home. They want something mindless that doesn’t require much effort, so losing service and assembly line type jobs to automation is a problem for them. In The Robots are Coming for Your Job, Too the author paints a pretty gloomy picture for anyone who thinks their service job will still exist in 50 years. The reality is that any job that currently pays under $25.00 an hour is likely to become a victim of automation. Many people insist that they’re irreplaceable, but the fact is that automation can easily take their job and employers are looking forward to the change because automation doesn’t require healthcare, pensions, vacation days, sick days, or salaries. Most importantly, automation does as its told.

In the story The rise of greedy robots, the author lays out the basis for an increase in automation that maximizes business profit at the expense of workers. Articles such as On the Phenomenon of Bullshit Jobs tell why people are still working a 40 hour work week when it truly isn’t necessary to do so. In short, if you really do insist on performing a task that is essentially pointless, the government and industry is perfectly willing to let you do so until a time when technology is so entrenched that it’s no longer possible to do anything about it (no, I’m not making this up). As mentioned earlier, even some relatively essential jobs, such as security, have a short life expectancy with the way things are changing.

The question of how automation will affect human employment in the future remains. Theoretically, people could work a 15 hour work week even now, but then we’d have to give up some of our consumerism—the purchase of gadgets we really don’t need. Earlier, I talked about jobs that are safer, more interesting, and more fulfilling. There are also those pointless jobs that the government will doubtless prop up at some point to keep people from rioting. However, there is another occupation that will likely become a major source of employment, but only for the nit-picky, detail person. In The thin line between good and bad automation the author explores the problem of scripts calling scripts. Even though algorithms will eventually create and maintain other algorithms, which in turn means that automation will eventually build itself, someone will still have to monitor the outcomes of all that automation. In addition, the search for better algorithms continues (as described in The Master Algorithm: How the Quest for the Ultimate Learning Machine Will Remake Our World and More data or better models?). Of course, these occupations still require someone with a great education and a strong desire to do something significant as part of their occupation.

The point of all this speculation is that it isn’t possible to know precisely how the world will change due to the effects of automation, but it will most definitely change. Even though automation currently has limits, scientists are currently working on methods to extend automation even further so that the world science fiction authors have written about for years will finally come into being (perhaps not quite in the way they had envisioned, however). Your current occupation may not exist 10 years from now, much less 50 years from now. The smart thing to do is to assume your job is going to be gone and that you really do need a Plan B in place—a Plan B that may call for an increase in flexibility, training, and desire to do something interesting, rather than the same mundane task you’ve plodded along doing for the last ten years. Let me know your thoughts on the effects of automation at [email protected].

Robotics and Your Job

This is an update of a post that originally appeared on February 29, 2016.

I have written more than a few books now that involve robotics, AI, machine learning, deep learning, or some other form of advanced technology such as Machine Learning Security PrinciplesArtificial Intelligence for Dummies, 2nd Edition, Algorithms for Dummies, 2nd EditionPython for Data Science for Dummies, and Machine Learning for Dummies, 2nd Edition. People have often asked me whether a Terminator style robot is possible based on comments by people like Stephen Hawking and Elon Musk (who seems to have changed his mind). It isn’t, Ex Machina and The Terminator notwithstanding. I’m also asked whether they’ll be without work sometime soon (the topic of this post). (As an aside, deus ex machina is a literary plot device that has been around for a long time before the movie came out.)

Whether your job is secure depends on the kind of job you have, whether robotics jobs will actually save money and improve the technology we already have, what you believe as a person, and how your boss interprets all the hype currently out there. For example, if your claim to fame is flipping burgers, then you’d better be ready to get another job soon. McDonald’s has opened its first mostly fully automated store in Texas. Some jobs are simply going to go away, no doubt about it.

However, robots aren’t always the answer to the question. Many experts see three scenarios: humans working for robots (as in a doctor collaborating with a robot to perform surgery more accurately and with greater efficiency), humans servicing robots (those McDonald’s jobs may be going away, but someone will have to maintain the robots), and robots working for humans (such as that Roomba that’s currently keeping your house clean). The point is that robots will actually create new jobs, but that means humans will need new skills. Instead of boring jobs that pay little, someone with the proper training can have an interesting job that pays moderately well.

An interesting backlash against automation has occurred in several areas. So, what you believe as a person does matter when it comes to the question of jobs. The story that tells the tale most succinctly appears in ComputerWorld, Taxpayer demand for human help soars, despite IRS automation (the fact that the IRS automation is overloaded doesn’t help matters). Sometimes people want a human to help them. This backlash could actually thwart strategies such as the use of robotic police dogs, which don’t appear to be very popular with the public.

There is also the boss’ perspective to consider. A boss is only a boss as long as there is someone or something to manage. Even though your boss will begrudgingly give up your job to automation, you can be sure that giving up a job personally isn’t on the list of things to do. Some members of the press have resorted to viewing the future as a time when robots do everything and humans don’t work, but really, this viewpoint is a fantasy. However, it’s not a fantasy that companies such as Hitachi are experimenting with robot managers. Some employees actually prefer the consistent interaction of a robot boss. It’s unlikely that managers will take this invasion of their domain sitting down and do something to make using robots untenable.

Robots are definitely making inroads into society and children growing up with robots being a part of their lives will likely be more accepting of them. Still, there is some debate as to just how far robot use will go and how fast it will get there. The interaction between business and the people that businesses serve will play a distinct role in how things play out. However, all this said, your job will likely be different in the future due to the influences of robots. For the most part, I feel that life will be better for everyone after the adjustment, but that the adjustment will be quite hard. Let me know your thoughts on robots at [email protected].

Profession Versus Job

I often find inspiration for posts in places that you wouldn’t think to look. Today’s post comes courtesy of Bill Bridges from his Green Market Press blog. The post in question is the Taipei Journal entry for today—there are many of these journal entries, all entertaining and educational about the human condition. Bill is a professional journalist and a good friend who has often inspired me to excel with his seemingly simple posts. The reason that today’s post struck a chord with me is that it answers part of the question of how to become a programmer. My initial post discussed the mechanics, the precursors that someone might pursue to become a programmer, but that post didn’t answer the question of how to make programming a profession.

Today’s journal entry answers the question of profession versus job rather succinctly. Susan writes an article that constantly mentions “the French system of government” without ever explaining what the term means. Bill asks her about it and her response is, “I did sort of wonder about that.” Susan has a job, Bill has a profession. Education, no matter how complete, is only a precursor to a profession. In order to turn a job into a profession, one must also become involved, learn to think for oneself, and have a desire to excel. An aspiring programmer must have integrity as well and be willing to devote long hours toward the goal of delivering the best possible code. Mind you, the code a particular individual delivers is unlikely to be perfect and it’s always possibly that someone else will write better codeI’m talking here about excellence within the individual’s ability to deliver it.

Anyone can perform a job. Only a few people have a profession. However, I’m not talking about a particular sort of profession. When Rebecca and I lived in San Diego, we’d go to a particular restaurant (the name escapes me at the moment, but the restaurant is no longer there anyway). There was a man named Kevin there who waited tablesit was his profession. You could see it in the way he performed the tasks of his tradewith enthusiasm, vigor, and more than a little subtle humor. You felt honored to be served by him and the lines were often long with people who specifically asked for him. Application development is a trade that requires no small amount of education, but I’ve seen more than a few people obtain the required skills by simply reading a book. The difference between a job and a profession remains the samethe professional takes responsibility for successful completion of the task and delights in seeing the task well-done.

While my previous post described a job, this one describes a profession. Many people have questioned why America has been losing it’s place in many different technology areas. First of all, I submit that statistics lie and often tell the story that they’re designed to tell. Don’t believe the lies that you readthink for yourself. Americans still have what it takes to create some of the most amazing technologies ever and I’ve discussed more than a few of these technologies in previous posts. If America has truly lost its edge, then where do these technologies come from? Second, far too many Americans are focused on getting a job, rather than a profession. When you view America of the past, you discover that we have had an array of professionals that delivered new technology is all sorts of waysmany never thought about before.

The bottom line is that you need to consider what sort of programmer you’re going to be as part of your journey. Education isn’t enough. If you really want to become a good programmer, then you must be willing to do what it takes to become a professional. As a professional, you’ll have a higher quality of life, discover the benefits of job satisfaction, and contribute to society in ways that you can scarcely imagine. So what do you havea job or a profession? Let me know your thoughts at [email protected].